Why Are Russians Leaving Now?
More than 113,000 Russians exited the country last week through the Upper Lars checkpoint on the border with Georgia, marking a significant increase in cross-border movement. This surge follows recent recruitment measures by Russian authorities and reflects widespread concern that the Kremlin may be preparing to announce another wave of military mobilization. The exodus echoes patterns seen during previous mobilization announcements, when tens of thousands sought to leave Russia to avoid conscription.
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The High-Stakes Fight for Senate Majority ControlThe Upper Lars checkpoint, a key transit point for travelers heading south into Georgia and beyond, has seen traffic volumes rise sharply in recent weeks. While exact figures for prior weeks were not provided, the current number represents a notable spike compared to earlier periods. Many of those leaving are men of conscription age, though families and other civilians are also among the travelers. Georgian officials have confirmed increased arrivals but have not disclosed specific numbers or nationalities beyond acknowledging the uptick in Russian citizens.
What Are the Risks for Those Who Stay?
The recent departure surge is closely tied to anxiety over a potential new mobilization order from the Kremlin. Although no official announcement has been made, recent legislative moves and military recruitment efforts have fueled speculation. In late 2022, a partial mobilization triggered a similar exodus, with hundreds of thousands fleeing within days. Current fears are heightened by ongoing combat in Ukraine and reports of increased pressure on regional recruitment offices to meet personnel targets. Many who left cited the desire to avoid being drafted into a conflict they do not support.
Those remaining in Russia face growing uncertainty about future conscription possibilities. While the government has not confirmed plans for another mobilization, regional military commissariats have reportedly received updated guidelines for preparing reserve lists. Human rights groups warn that any new draft could disproportionately affect rural and economically disadvantaged communities. Legal experts note that evading conscription carries serious penalties, including imprisonment, which further drives the decision to leave for many.
Is the Upper Lars checkpoint the only route Russians are using to leave? No, while Upper Lars is a major crossing point, Russians are also departing via other borders, including with Finland, Estonia, and Kazakhstan, as well as by air from airports still operating international flights.
Frequently Asked Questions
Can Russians legally leave the country during mobilization? Yes, Russian citizens are generally permitted to exit the country unless they have been personally summoned for military service or are under legal restrictions such as criminal investigations or court orders.
What happens if someone is caught trying to avoid a draft? Avoiding conscription after being officially summoned can result in criminal charges under Russian law, with penalties ranging from fines to up to five years in prison, depending on the circumstances and whether deception or violence was involved.
