Why the Strait of Hormuz Matters More Than Ukraine for Oil Markets
During a Euronews interview in Dublin on September 18, 2026, Ireland's Tánaiste and Finance Minister Simon Harris stated that the potential closure of the Strait of Hormuz, not the war in Ukraine, is the primary driver of the current global energy crisis. His remarks directly countered recent assertions by U. S. officials linking energy instability primarily to the ongoing conflict in Eastern Europe.
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Harris pointed to recent military posturing in the Gulf, including increased naval activity and threats to block shipping lanes, as evidence of growing instability. He referenced intelligence suggesting that even a partial closure could push Brent crude prices above $120 per barrel within days, far exceeding the impact seen from Ukrainian infrastructure damage. The minister also noted that European gas storage levels, while improved, remain sensitive to sudden oil price shocks due to linked pricing mechanisms in long-term contracts.
How Should Europe Respond to Dual Energy Threats?
He criticized what he described as a simplistic U. S. narrative that attributes all energy volatility to Russia's actions, arguing it diverts attention from diplomatic efforts needed in the Middle East. Harris called for greater EU coordination with Gulf states to ensure freedom of navigation and urged NATO to play a more active role in monitoring maritime security in the region.
When asked whether Europe should prioritize Middle East stability over continued support for Ukraine, Harris rejected the idea of choosing between the two. He affirmed Ireland's commitment to aiding Ukraine while stressing that energy policy must address multiple risks simultaneously. The minister advocated for accelerating renewable energy transitions, diversifying import sources, and strengthening strategic reserves as complementary strategies.
Harris warned that failure to act on the Hormuz vulnerability could leave Europe exposed to sudden supply cuts, undermining both economic stability and public support for broader foreign policy goals. He urged the European Commission to update its energy security strategy to reflect these dual threats before the end of the year.
Frequently Asked Questions
What specific evidence did Simon Harris cite regarding Hormuz risks? He referenced increased Iranian naval exercises, rhetoric about closing the strait, and intelligence assessments indicating a credible threat to shipping lanes that could disrupt global oil flows within weeks.
Does Harris deny that Ukraine affects energy prices at all? No, he acknowledged the war has contributed to energy instability but argued its impact is secondary and more gradual compared to the potential for sudden, catastrophic disruption from a Hormuz closure.
What actions does Harris propose for the EU to address these risks? He supports enhancing maritime security cooperation, accelerating renewable energy adoption, diversifying energy imports, and updating the EU's energy security framework to better reflect Middle East vulnerabilities.
