How the Associated Press Calls Midterm Races

The Data Behind the Call

The Associated Press has once again been tasked with calling the 2026 midterm election races. PBS News relies on the AP's methodology to declare winners. This year, the battlegrounds have expanded significantly. Millions of votes are now being counted across more states than in previous cycles.

The AP uses a rigorous, data-driven process to determine outcomes. Analysts monitor vote counts in real time. They compare incoming results against historical margins and demographic shifts. A race is called only when the margin exceeds the remaining uncounted votes. This ensures no premature declarations.

The AP's model incorporates multiple data streams. These include state election board feeds, county-level tallies, and exit poll data. Analysts cross-reference these sources to build confidence. A race is not called until the probability of an upset falls below a strict threshold. This protects against last-minute flips.

Why the AP Still Sets the Standard

In 2026, the expanded battlegrounds mean more races are within statistical uncertainty early on. The AP holds off on calling close contests until late in the night. This approach has drawn criticism from some politicians who want faster results. However, the AP prioritizes accuracy over speed.

Many networks and news organizations have attempted to build their own calling models. None have matched the AP's track record. The AP's calls are treated as the industry benchmark. When the AP declares a winner, it typically ends the debate.

The process begins with data collection from state election boards. Analysts then apply statistical models to project outcomes. They factor in historical voting patterns and current turnout trends. Only when the model shows a decisive margin does the AP issue a formal call.

Frequently Asked Questions

Why does the AP wait so long to call close races? The AP uses a conservative threshold to avoid errors. It waits until the margin is large enough that remaining votes cannot change the outcome. This prevents costly mistakes.

What data does the AP use to call races? The AP combines state election board data, county tallies, and exit polls. Analysts cross-check these sources before making a call.

How has the 2026 election changed the AP's process? The expanded set of battlegrounds means more races remain uncertain for longer. The AP has adjusted its timing to reflect this broader uncertainty.