How Sweden’s Election Could Shift Power to the Far Right

A Sudden Surge for the Sweden Democrats

Millions of Swedes will head to the polls this Sunday to decide whether a new left‑wing government will continue or whether far‑right ministers could take office for the first time. The Social Democrat‑led left bloc had a comfortable lead for most of the campaign, but recent polls have narrowed the gap dramatically, putting the election on a knife‑edge.

The election is scheduled for Sunday, 11th September, in a country that has recently joined NATO. Voters will choose 349 members for the Riksdag, the Swedish parliament, and the outcome will determine the country’s political direction for the next four years. The stakes are high, as the far‑right party, Sweden Democrats, has surged in popularity and could gain enough seats to influence policy if the left loses.

Will the Left Bloc Hold Its Lead?

In the final fortnight of campaigning, the Sweden Democrats’ share of the vote climbed from 17% to 20%, according to the latest poll from the Swedish Institute of Public Opinion. This surge is largely attributed to growing concerns over immigration and security. The party’s leader, Jimmie Åkesson, has pledged to tighten border controls and reduce asylum applications, appealing to voters who feel left behind by globalization. Analysts say that if the Sweden Democrats secure 70 seats, they could become kingmakers in a coalition, potentially shaping legislation on immigration, policing, and welfare.

The Social Democrats, led by Prime Minister Magdalena Andersson, have maintained a lead of roughly 5% over the centre‑right Moderates. However, recent polling shows a steady decline in support for the left, dropping from 35% to 30% in the last two weeks. Factors include dissatisfaction with the government's handling of the COVID‑19 recovery plan and rising inflation. The Moderates, under new leader Ulf Kristersson, have capitalised on these frustrations by promising tax cuts and a more business‑friendly environment. If the left fails to regain momentum, the election could see a historic shift toward a more nationalist government.

What Could a Far‑Right Majority Mean for Sweden?

A majority for the Sweden Democrats would mark the first time a far‑right party has held power in Sweden’s post‑war history. Experts warn that such a shift could lead to stricter immigration policies, a re‑evaluation of Sweden’s neutrality stance, and potential changes to the welfare system. Internationally, the move could strain Sweden’s relationships within the EU and NATO, as the party has previously criticized both institutions. The public debate is already heating up, with civil society groups and political commentators weighing the risks of a nationalist agenda.

Frequently Asked Questions

The outcome will also affect Sweden’s role in the broader European context. A left‑wing government would likely continue to support EU integration and climate initiatives, while a far‑right administration could pull back from some commitments. The election’s result will therefore reverberate beyond Sweden’s borders, influencing regional politics and international alliances.

Q: Could the election result change Sweden’s NATO stance? A: While the Sweden Democrats have expressed skepticism about NATO, a majority could lead to a reassessment of Sweden’s role in the alliance. However, any major shift would require broad parliamentary support.